????本周，美國(guó)總統(tǒng)奧巴馬將結(jié)束對(duì)印度為期三天的訪問，現(xiàn)在近距離觀察這個(gè)國(guó)家或許正合時(shí)宜。未來兩年，印度或許將成為全世界增長(zhǎng)最快的大型經(jīng)濟(jì)體。雖然面臨嚴(yán)峻的挑戰(zhàn)，但印度仍有絕佳的機(jī)會(huì)實(shí)現(xiàn)讓12.5億國(guó)民共同繁榮的承諾。為了達(dá)到這一目標(biāo)，印度政府和商界必須精誠(chéng)合作，共同應(yīng)對(duì)各種挑戰(zhàn)，充分實(shí)現(xiàn)其經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)潛力。

????印度若想使其經(jīng)濟(jì)擁有一個(gè)光明的未來，并養(yǎng)活其龐大的人口，就必須保持9%的年均GDP增長(zhǎng)速度，進(jìn)而在未來20年內(nèi)成為10萬億美元經(jīng)濟(jì)體。為什么是10萬億？因?yàn)榈陀谶@個(gè)水平，印度就無法保障其社會(huì)與經(jīng)濟(jì)的未來。事實(shí)上，未來20年，隨著人口的快速增長(zhǎng)，印度每年必須創(chuàng)造1000萬至1200萬個(gè)工作崗位。

????印度的私營(yíng)部門有機(jī)會(huì)創(chuàng)造就業(yè)，并拉動(dòng)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展。根據(jù)普華永道會(huì)計(jì)事務(wù)所2015年對(duì)印度CEO所做的調(diào)查， 73%的CEO預(yù)計(jì)在未來12個(gè)月將增加員工人數(shù)，這一比例高于其他任何國(guó)家。62%的CEO對(duì)公司在未來12個(gè)月的增長(zhǎng)前景非常有信心——遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)高于39%的全球平均水平。最后，84%的CEO相信，相比三年前，自己的公司現(xiàn)在有更多發(fā)展機(jī)會(huì)——該比例同樣超過其他國(guó)家。這種信心來源于6億新興中產(chǎn)階級(jí)為整個(gè)國(guó)家?guī)淼拈L(zhǎng)期發(fā)展前景，以及納倫德拉?莫迪去年五月份高票當(dāng)選印度總理所產(chǎn)生的催化效應(yīng)。

????但創(chuàng)造就業(yè)和發(fā)展經(jīng)濟(jì)，僅靠私營(yíng)部門不可能實(shí)現(xiàn)。莫迪領(lǐng)導(dǎo)的新政府必須與商界精誠(chéng)合作，推行必要的改革，促進(jìn)國(guó)家經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)和發(fā)展——但在這方面，它將面臨三個(gè)主要挑戰(zhàn)：

????首先，印度的教育系統(tǒng)面臨一個(gè)重大挑戰(zhàn)。雖然印度最頂級(jí)的學(xué)院可以培養(yǎng)出優(yōu)秀的人才，但大多數(shù)小學(xué)和中學(xué)畢業(yè)生能力不足。而且最近的全國(guó)普查顯示，學(xué)生在校的閱讀水平在持續(xù)下降，這對(duì)于印度而言并非好兆頭，將使得它難以培養(yǎng)出填補(bǔ)新工作崗位所需的熟練勞動(dòng)力。未來二十年，印度必須為每年新增的七百萬兒童提供高質(zhì)量的正規(guī)教育，才能滿足國(guó)家對(duì)熟練工人的需求。按照傳統(tǒng)的教育策略很難實(shí)現(xiàn)這一目標(biāo)，因?yàn)橛《菺DP中僅有3%被用于教育，而世界其他國(guó)家的平均水平則超過6%。

????很顯然，改革教育體制將是印度政府的工作之一，但公司也必須發(fā)揮自己的作用，需要與政府合作打造一個(gè)強(qiáng)大的管道，以不斷輸出接受過教育的技術(shù)型人才。國(guó)家技能發(fā)展公司近期促進(jìn)技能培養(yǎng)的努力，便是為培養(yǎng)熟練工人進(jìn)行的一次嘗試。

????其次，按照傳統(tǒng)的線性方式，印度經(jīng)濟(jì)將無法實(shí)現(xiàn)充分的增長(zhǎng)。提高雙邊貿(mào)易和投資，當(dāng)然是奧巴馬和莫迪重點(diǎn)磋商的議題之一。美國(guó)的核能公司一直無法在印度開展業(yè)務(wù)，上周末，雙方停滯多年的核能談判取得突破。但這還遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)不夠。公共和私營(yíng)領(lǐng)域的貿(mào)易與投資必須將效率與創(chuàng)新作為核心。這需要能夠推動(dòng)技術(shù)外溢，進(jìn)而帶動(dòng)創(chuàng)新的外國(guó)直接投資。普華永道近期的調(diào)查顯示，未來二十年，印度政府必須大力推動(dòng)創(chuàng)新和研發(fā)，將其研發(fā)投入在GDP的占比從0.8%提高到2.4%，才有可能實(shí)現(xiàn)9%的增長(zhǎng)目標(biāo)。

????對(duì)于印度的CEO們來說，這不是什么新聞。印度的商界領(lǐng)袖對(duì)于妨礙創(chuàng)新、研發(fā)和外國(guó)投資的各種挑戰(zhàn)非常擔(dān)憂。這些問題包括賄賂、腐敗、不穩(wěn)定的能源成本和關(guān)鍵技能的缺失。普華永道調(diào)查的印度CEO中，有82%表示政府的首要任務(wù)應(yīng)該是確保充足的基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施，但有68%的受訪者認(rèn)為政府在這方面并不稱職。

????最后，吸引外國(guó)投資面臨嚴(yán)峻的挑戰(zhàn)，印度的監(jiān)管政策、腐敗問題和亟需大規(guī)模升級(jí)的基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施，令外國(guó)公司非常謹(jǐn)慎。為了提高投資者的信心，莫迪向外國(guó)政府和投資者展開魅力攻勢(shì)。截至本月底，上任不足一年（任期五年）的莫迪訪問或接待的外國(guó)領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人包括美國(guó)、澳大利亞、巴西、中國(guó)和日本等。但印度若想吸引美國(guó)公司和投資者，必須正面應(yīng)對(duì)國(guó)內(nèi)的嚴(yán)峻挑戰(zhàn)。

????如果印度實(shí)現(xiàn)9%的發(fā)展速度，這個(gè)最大的民主國(guó)家將書寫近代史中最輝煌的經(jīng)濟(jì)建設(shè)篇章之一。在此過程中，美國(guó)和印度的企業(yè)、創(chuàng)業(yè)者和投資者將迎來巨大的機(jī)遇。

????本文作者Bob Moritz為普華永道會(huì)計(jì)事務(wù)所董事長(zhǎng)兼高級(jí)合伙人，Deepak Kapoor為普華永道（印度）董事長(zhǎng)。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

????譯者：劉進(jìn)龍/汪皓

????審校：任文科

????As President Obama wraps up his three-day visit to India this week, it’s a fitting time to take a closer look at a country that may well be the world’s fastest-growing major economy over the next two years. Though confronting great challenges, India has amazing opportunities with the promise of shared prosperity for its 1.25 billion citizens. But in order to make this promise a reality, India’s government and business community must work together to tackle some of its challenges and realize its economic growth potential.

????In order for India to secure its economic future and provide for its citizens, the country needs to increase its GDP by 9% a year in order to become a $10 trillion economy over the next 20 years. Why $10 trillion? Because anything less would not secure India’s social and economic future. In fact, India needs to create 10 to 12 million jobs every year for the next 20 years in order to keep up with its rapidly growing population.

????India’s private sector has an opportunity to create jobs and grow the economy. According to PwC’s 2015 CEO Survey,73% of Indian CEOs expect to boost headcount within the next 12 months, and this is highest compared to any other country in the world. Sixty-two percent of Indian CEOs are very confident in their companies’ growth over the next 12 months — significantly higher than the 39% global average. Finally, 84% of India’s CEOs believe there are more growth opportunities for their companies today than three years ago – again, the highest percentage in the world. This sentiment is driven both by long-term growth prospects in a country with an emerging middle class of 600 million people, and by the more immediate catalyst of a clear mandate for India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who was elected just last May.

????But creating jobs and growing the economy cannot be achieved by India’s private sector alone. The Indian government, led by Modi, must work with businesses to implement the reforms necessary to boost the country’s economic growth and development—here, it faces three major challenges:

????First, India’s education system presents a major challenge.While India produces quality talent from its most elite institutes, the vast majority of graduates from its primary and secondary education are not sufficiently skilled. That, combined with a recent national survey indicating declining reading levels in schools, does not bode well for India’s ability to develop the educated and skilled labor force needed to fill new positions. Over the next two decades, India must deliver high-quality, formal education to seven million additional children each year in order to meet the country’s demands for skilled labor. Doing so won’t be easy with traditional education strategies, given that just over 3% of India’s GDP is targeted at education, compared with an average of more than 6% across the rest of the world.

????While reforming the country’s education system is clearly a job for the government, business must play a role and work with the government to ensure a strong pipeline of educated and skilled talent. The recent effort to foster skill development through the National Skill Development Corporation is one such attempt at creating a skilled workforce.

????Second, India’s economy will not achieve sufficient growth through traditional, linear approaches. As President Obama meets with Prime Minister Modi, increasing bilateral trade and investment has certainly been on their agenda. Over the weekend, they resolved key issues in a long-stalled nuclear deal that for years kept U.S. nuclear companies from doing business in India. More needs to be done, however. Trade and investment, both public and private, must focus on productivity and innovation. This will require foreign direct investment that will drive technological spillovers and consequently, will drive innovation. According to PwC’s recent research, a 9% growth scenario in India will be unattainable unless the country makes a strong push in innovation and Research & Development, tripling its R&D spend from 0.8% to 2.4% of GDP over the next two decades.

????This is not news to India’s CEOs. The country’s business leaders are concerned with a variety of challenges hindering innovation, R&D and foreign investment. These issues include bribery, corruption, volatile energy costs, and the availability of key skills. Critically, 82% of the Indian CEOs surveyed by PwC said that a government priority should be ensuring adequate infrastructure, while 68% think their government has been ineffective in doing so.

????Finally, attracting foreign investments presents a serious challenge, with international businesses wary of India’s regulatory landscape, issues related to corruption and an infrastructure in need of significant upgrade. In order to boost investor confidence, Modi has launched a diplomatic offensive to court foreign governments and investors. By the end of this month —and less than a year into his five-year term — the prime minister will have visited or hosted the leaders of the United States, Australia, Brazil, China, and Japan, among others. However, if India is to attract American companies and investors, it must meet its significant domestic challenges head on.

????As India seeks a growth trajectory of 9%, the nation will be attempting one of the largest democratic nation building exercises in recent history. As it does so, the opportunities for U.S. and Indian businesses, entrepreneurs and investors are enormous.

????Bob Moritz is the chairman and senior partner of PwC and Deepak Kapoor is Chairman of PwC India.